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May Job Numbers

DAVID DUHALDE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their jobs numbers for May 2012. These statistics appear grim for America’s job seekers, but also for President Obama’s reelection chances. The number of employed Americans did grow by 69,000, largely due to the private sector hiring as government reduced its workforce by 13,000. The Obama and Romney camps will likely spin these employment factoids for their benefits. For now, here are a few tidbits young public policy makers should note:

1) Unemployment Rate
The BLS described the unemployment rated as “essentially unchanged.” The jobless rate did rise 0.1 percentage points to 8.2%. Not huge mathematically, but does represent over 150,000 people (our civilian labor force is 155 million residents). What made it go up if there was an increase in employed workers?

A major change in May was the influx of college graduates into the labor market. Students without jobs are not counted as unemployed. Many pupils in higher education knew they had no job after Commencement, but BLS didn’t until diplomas are handed out. Now the government can officially recognize the unemployed and educated. That being written, those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%.

2) Veterans
Veterans over 18 years of age have seen a decrease in their unemployment to under the national average to 7.8% from 8.3% a year ago. However, Gulf War II veterans saw an increase in unemployment from 12.1% to 12.7%. This begs the question: when more troops come home, how many will be hired?

3) Public Sector
Despite cries from certain political elements, Barack Obama and the state governments are not being run by Socialists. In fact, they aren’t even Keynesians. Instead of raising taxes slightly or reducing waste, government continues to lay off workers. Many citizens depend on state for services, not just paid labor. Taking away civil servants during economic hardship is an unnecessary and avoidable consequence of myopic budget cutting.

4) Race
White unemployment stagnated at 7.4%, but both blacks and Hispanics saw an increase in unemployment. Hispanic unemployment reached a 2012 high of 11%. Black unemployment rose by 0.6 percentage points to 13.6%. This is still lower than the February high of 14.1%. The vicissitudes of employment for people of color appears to be a trademark of the slow recovery.

Is there a silver lining? Yes. It some of these increases in unemployment rates, including U-6 which measures the underemployed, may mean more people are seeking work because they are optimistic about finding a job. Only time will tell if there hopes are met with reality.

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1 Comment

  1. I should make a correction that graduates will not show up until the June numbers, and are accounted for the seasonal adjusting.

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